Europeere er ikke verdt bevares – i motsetning til biller

children1Direktoratet for naturforvaltning har satt seg fore å redde to arter i Norge. Nei, ikke etniske nordmenn, men to billearter. Sinoberbillen og elvesandjegeren får nå all den oppmerksomhet den trenger for å overleve. Dette skriver

Kampen for å bevare de forskjellige artene i Europa, alt fra larver til bison er stor og sterk, men tanken på å bevare hvite europeere er utenkbar og fraværende.


One thing seems certain: Europe’s importance is finished. Despite the divergences in long-range forecasts, all IIASA and Eurostat scenarios show a relative decline in Europe’s share of the world population. In 1950 almost 12% of the worlds population lived in the present EU states. In 2050, according to Eurostat, it will be just 4%. IIASA ‘s projected 2050 share for all of Europe is 7% or 8%. In the ESA 2004 projection, the medium-scenario share is also 7% in 2300. The constant-fertility scenario is much more extreme:

Fertility stays at current levels in the constant projection scenario, which leads to incredibly large numbers for world population. For the European population, however, it leads instead, in the long run, to startlingly low numbers…. The European Union… would fall by 2300 to only 59 million. About half the countries of Europe would lose 95 per cent or more of their population, and such countries as the Russian Federation and Italy would have only 1 per cent of their population left. Although one might entertain the possibility that fertility will never rise above current levels, the consequences appear sufficiently grotesque as to make this seem improbable.

It is an absurd contrast: anti-immigrant parties complain of an endless stream of immigrants, and crowded cities. Yet the UN estimates of Proportion of Global Population by Region show, that the scale of the relative decline is enormous. So great, that hundreds of millions of immigrants would be needed to restore Europe’s share of global population. The more recent UN Replacement Migration Report calculates the immigration to restore the age balance. The summary table for the European Union includes a scenario with a constant ratio between the 15-64 age group and the over-65 age group. From 1995 to 2050, a total of 700 million immigrants would be needed. That scenario includes EU population growth – in effect it diverts African and Asian growth to Europe. The immigration needed to maintain EU population is smaller, but would still horrify anti-immigrant parties – 47 million immigrants. All three approaches (maintaining global share, maintaining age structure, maintaining population) need massive immigration.

If Europe in 2300 is still an important continent, then it will almost certainly be a black continent. Future migration policy may seem absurd, by present standards. Will border police be replaced by ‘come-here’ advertising? To a certain extent that has already happened: in the late 1990’s western European countries began to compete for skilled immigrants, starting with the IT sector. That competition will probably resume when the economy recovers.

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